Andre Gomes Sports Handicapper

NBA Advanced Stats Numbers 02/21

NBA Premium Play 02/21: San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 709 San Antonio Spurs @ 710 Portland Trailblazers
Projected line: 186 points
The Spurs are coming from another close win in Utah last night. They were basically an outside jump shooting team, with just 10-19 FG at the rim and 3-12 FG at 3-9 feet. However, they had deadly sharp outside numbers with 5-7 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-21 3pts! Note that Duncan played 38 minutes and so, this might become a tough spot for the Spurs, as they are on a tough back to back spot tonight and with no frontcourt depth. The Spurs are coming from a road trip in the East and then, an overtime road game against the Clippers, followed by yesterday's game in Utah and now in Portland. This is a terrible spot for a jump shooting team, so they are likely to struggle offensively tonight.
On the other side, Portland is coming from a ridiculous road loss against the Lakers last night, while it has been confirmed that Felton has lost his starting job to Jamal! The Blazers scored just 30 points in the first half, but then they exploded with 36 points in the 3rd quarter and that was thanks to a ridiculous number of 3pts shots made, as in fact they finished the game with 12-23 3pts, something I highly doubt they can repeat today. Note that they scored just 28 points in the paint, while they also showed no desire in playing good defense yesterday. The Spurs defense is built on making their opponents to shoot from the outside and Portland isn't by rule a good outside shooting team. The Blazers aren't on a good spot neither, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, with trips on every game played on this span. So, looking at the tough physical spot for both teams and the fact that they will have to shoot a lot from the perimeter, I believe neither team will have a big offensive game tonight, therefore I'll be taking the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/21: Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA - 703 Detroit Pistons @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: 196 points
Both teams are coming from wins. Cleveland defeated Sacramento at home, even with some offensive struggles, as they shot just 36% FG and their two best offensive players didn't play well: Irving 8-21 FG and Jamison 7-21 FG. Curiously, the Cavs had a lot of volume near the basket, but poor shooting: 19-32 FG at the rim and 2-10 FG from 3-9 feet. 
Both teams also didn't do a good job in defending transitions, as Sacramento scored 21 fast break points and Cleveland 13 points! On this specific area, Detroit is a bad team, as they allow 1.17 PPP in transition plays! In fact, the Pistons faced the Kings recently and in that game, Sacramento scored 29 fast break points and Detroit scored 30, while both teams scored also 60 and 56 points in the paint respectively! I also expect high numbers at this area for tonight, as Cleveland is playing without Varejao and Erden lacks the same defensive qualities of the Brazilian center, while Detroit has in Monroe a huge offensive threat in their frontcourt. 
On the other side, Detroit's interior defense is very poor, especially in defending quick point guards like Irving, who will have a great matchup tonight! We have everything necessary to have a close game in here, with both teams producing a good amount of offense by taking advantage of the defensive struggles of the other team. Therefore, I'll be taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/21: Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat

NBA - 705 Sacramento Kings @ 706 Miami Heat
Projected lines: 206 points | Miami by 17 points
From all the lowly teams in the league, the Kings will defense is the one more who presents the easiest matchup to the Heat red hot offense. The Kings defense is almost allowing 17 fast break points per game and Miami is lethal in transition as we all know it and therefore, we can expect a big offensive show from the Heat today. Sacramento is also terribly bad at defending at the rim by allowing 69% FG! This combination of bad interior defense with bad transition defense will give the Heat a very easy matchup for them!
Sacramento has also been playing with a 3-guards rotation with Evans + Thomas + Thornton and so, this will be a walk in the park for Wade and Lebron. Miami is not only red shot near the basket, as also from the outside with 40% FG from 16-23 feet and 47% 3pts in their last 5 games. The Kings may have some edge with Cousins down low, but Miami defends very well at the rim, so either Sacramento will hit from their outside shots or Miami's defensive rebounds will easily transform into transition points!
We can expect the Heat to be a bit relaxed tonight, but their edge in this matchup is just tremendous. In a way or another,this game will end up being similar to the one the Kings played in Chicago, where the Bulls won by 121-115. The difference is that Rose was out in that game and tonight, Miami will have both Lebron and Wade pounding the poor defense of the Kings. Therefore, I expect a super blowout for Miami tonight in a shootout and so, I'll take both Miami and the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Miami Heat (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/21: New Orleans Hornets @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 701 New Orleans Hornets @ 702 Indiana Pacers
Projected line: Indiana by 8 points
The Hornets proved yesterday that they don't give up on the games, but still the books are treating them like an absolutely horrible team! They were on an early hole yesterday in Oklahoma City by getting outscored by 18-31 in the first quarter and then 20-29 in the second quarter! Coach Williams used more the 2nd unit in the game thanks to that and it was due to some bench players that they made this game more competitive at the end, especially Jack, Jones and Aminu. With that, nobody from the Hornets played more than 30 minutes and so, this back to back spot isn't that bad. 
On the other side, Indiana is coming from a mega win against the Bobcats, in one of the biggest no shows I've watched this season. Indiana outplayed Charlotte 37-11 on offensive rebound rate, while shooting 8-15 FG in transition and 6-9 FG on offensive rebound plays. Everything was just so easy for the Pacers, but in today's game I don't expect that to happen, as the Hornets are a decent defensive team and a good rebounding team. The Hornets will make this game a slow paced one by using their great rebounding and great transition defense and by putting the Pacers at such slow pace, I don't expect Indiana to be able to blowout them. Therefore, I will take New Orleans today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 New Orleans Hornets (+11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker